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南昌大学硕士研究生发表ABS3期刊!

  • 2026-08-16 23:23:24
南昌大学硕士研究生发表ABS3期刊!
南昌大学经济管理学院2024级金融专业硕士研究生杨衍昊与研究会指导教师南昌大学经济管理学院邢凯副教授、彭迪云教授、2023级统计学博士研究生苏雅以及博士后研究员肖福龙合作完成学术论文"Exploring the impact of climate risk on economic activities by capturing critical transitions in the climate system"成功发表在China Finance Review International（JCR Q1，ABS3期刊）。该研究首次将临界转换理论应用于气候风险的实证测度，利用中国2011至2022年的宏观数据，揭示了气候风险在短期内会推高农业生产成本、抑制工业增长但促进服务业产出，且这些影响在长期具有可逆性。
该研究从供应链视角切入，探讨了客户企业气候风险披露对上游供应商现金持有决策的传导效应。基于中国A股上市公司数据并匹配供应链上下游关系，研究发现客户的气候风险披露与供应商现金持有量之间存在显著的正向关联：客户披露程度每提升1%，供应商的现金持有水平相应增加约10.1%。这一核心发现在经过工具变量法、Heckman检验等系列内生性处理和稳健性检验后依然保持稳健。机制分析表明，客户披露气候风险往往伴随着其自身违约风险的上升，供应商出于预防性动机，会相应增持现金以应对未来潜在的不确定性冲击。异质性分析进一步揭示，这一传导效应在特定条件下更为突出：当客户具有较高的议价能力、面临较大的财务困境程度，或处于气候政策不确定性较高的环境中时，客户气候风险披露对供应商现金持有的影响更为明显。该研究为理解气候风险在供应链中的跨企业传递机制提供了新的实证证据，也为企业应对环境不确定性带来的财务风险提供了实践启示，凸显了气候信息披露作为供应链风险管理重要因素的角色。
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